000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310231
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
0300 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF
ACAPULCO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACHACA TO TECPAN DE GALEANA.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO WESTWARD TO
MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT WEST OF TECPAN
DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  98.0W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  98.0W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  97.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 15.4N  98.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 100.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.2N 101.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 17.9N 103.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  98.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN