000
WTPZ21 KNHC 301436
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
1500 UTC WED MAY 30 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 114.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 114.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.6N 115.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 116.1W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.4N 118.1W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 12.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.0N 120.7W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 11.0N 122.3W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 114.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE