000
WTNT25 KNHC 192042
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE NIGEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
2100 UTC TUE SEP 19 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  54.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
EYE DIAMETER  50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  54.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N  54.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.7N  54.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 36.7N  53.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  45SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 39.8N  49.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  45SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  60NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 42.8N  42.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW  50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 45.7N  35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 48.6N  28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 210SE 170SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 56.0N  20.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 58.0N  21.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N  54.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART