000
WTNT25 KNHC 051441
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1500 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 
* GRAND CAYMAN
 
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  77.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......110NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  77.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N  76.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.0N  79.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.4N  81.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 15.9N  83.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N  85.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.0N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 20.0N  92.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N  96.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N  77.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS