000
WTNT25 KNHC 050246
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0300 UTC SUN AUG 05 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  72.7W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  72.7W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  71.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.8N  75.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N  78.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.3N  81.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.0N  82.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.0N  92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  72.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN