000
WTNT25 KNHC 041443
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
1500 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  68.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  68.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  67.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N  71.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N  77.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N  80.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.0N  84.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 19.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  68.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA