000
WTNT25 KNHC 040839
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0900 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.2W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N  67.2W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  66.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.5N  69.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.1N  73.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.7N  76.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N  79.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.5N  83.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N  90.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N  67.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN