000
WTNT25 KNHC 040237
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
0300 UTC SAT AUG 04 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF JAMAICA ON
SATURDAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  65.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  65.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  64.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.2N  67.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.7N  71.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N  74.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N  77.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N  88.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  65.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN