000
WTNT25 KNHC 022031
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  56.6W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  19 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  56.6W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N  55.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.0N  59.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.2N  62.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.6N  65.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N  68.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N  80.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N  56.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH