000
WTNT24 KNHC 162034
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142023
2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  39.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......220NE 150SE  90SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  39.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  39.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.1N  40.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 34.6N  42.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.8N  42.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 37.1N  41.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.2N  39.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 38.2N  36.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 37.4N  32.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 37.5N  29.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.3N  39.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAHONEY/BUCCI