000
WTNT24 KNHC 080258
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016
0300 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH...FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* NORTH OF FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  80.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N  80.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N  80.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N  79.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.6N  77.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.9N  75.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 33.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N  80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN