000
WTNT24 KNHC 230850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
0900 UTC SUN AUG 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. MARTIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANNY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  56.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  56.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  55.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N  58.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  10SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.1N  63.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N  65.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N  70.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N  75.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  56.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART