000
WTNT24 KNHC 221500
TCMAT4
 
HURRICANE DANNY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR ST. MAARTEN.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  52.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  60SE  15SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  52.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  51.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N  53.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.1N  56.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.6N  58.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.2N  61.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N  75.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  52.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN