000
WTNT22 KNHC 180250
TCMAT2
 
HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FENWICK ISLAND TO SANDY HOOK
* DELAWARE BAY SOUTH
* EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO PLYMOUTH
* BLOCK ISLAND
* MARTHA'S VINEYARD
* NANTUCKET
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  71.6W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 200SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  71.6W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  71.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.4N  71.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.9N  71.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.6N  71.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.3N  71.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 40.2N  68.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 38.5N  68.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N  71.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN