000
WTNT22 KNHC 161441
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  72.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  50SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  72.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N  72.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 29.5N  72.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.8N  72.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.4N  72.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.2N  71.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 150SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 40.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 41.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N  72.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG