000
WTNT22 KNHC 100251
TCMAT2

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
0300 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MARTIN
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  63.4W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 100SE  50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  90SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  63.4W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N  62.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.1N  65.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.8N  67.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.5N  69.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.3N  68.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.2N  67.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 24.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N  63.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD/BLAKE