000
WTNT22 KNHC 171448
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016
1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  39.0W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......210NE   0SE   0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE  45SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  39.0W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N  38.5W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.1N  40.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...180NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.8N  43.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 17.8N  46.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE   0SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.3N  48.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 20.2N  54.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 22.5N  59.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 25.0N  63.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N  39.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE