000
WTNT22 KNHC 290840
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  41.7W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE  60SE   0SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  41.7W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N  41.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N  43.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 19.9N  45.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE  60SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.3N  46.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  60SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 22.3N  48.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.9N  52.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 24.5N  56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 24.5N  60.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  41.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH