000
WTNT22 KNHC 170840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
0900 UTC FRI SEP 17 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  45.1W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  21 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N  45.1W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N  44.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 25.0N  47.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.2N  50.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.7N  51.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.4N  52.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 36.0N  49.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N  44.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N  45.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE