000
WTNT22 KNHC 160840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
0900 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  36.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N  36.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N  35.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N  38.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  35SW  55NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.6N  42.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  85SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.4N  45.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 65NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  85SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.3N  47.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 32.5N  49.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...135NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.0N  46.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 36.0N  42.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N  36.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN