000 WTNT22 KNHC 012051 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2010 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELAWARE. * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA. * FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND. * NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 73.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT.......175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 210SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 73.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 74.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.7N 75.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...175NE 175SE 120SW 175NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 35.1N 74.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 75NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 38.5N 72.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 46.5N 63.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 125SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 58.0N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 73.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA