000
WTNT22 KNHC 010239
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* CAPE FEAR TO SURF CITY
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  69.9W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE  90SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..470NE 240SE 180SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  69.9W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  69.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N  71.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE  90SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.8N  75.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 125SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 32.7N  75.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 175NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 175NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 47.0N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 56.0N  58.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  69.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN