000
WTNT22 KNHC 300231
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  61.1W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  61.1W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  60.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.6N  64.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.1N  66.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.8N  68.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 130SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 34.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  61.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN