000
WTNT22 KNHC 292045
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
2100 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  59.5W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  59.5W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  58.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.0N  61.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.9N  63.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.3N  65.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N  66.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 27.3N  70.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 140NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 33.5N  71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  59.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG