000
WTNT22 KNHC 291449
TCMAT2
HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1500 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  58.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE  80SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  58.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  57.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.6N  60.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.6N  64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.1N  66.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.2N  69.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 37.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N  58.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG