000
WTNT22 KNHC 290838
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BEGINNING
WITHIN 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD
BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  56.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......140NE  80SE  15SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE  80SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  56.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  56.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.3N  59.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  15SW  35NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.9N  61.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE  90SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.7N  63.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.9N  65.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  75SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  56.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN