000
WTNT22 KNHC 282041
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST.KITTS...NEVIS...AND
ANGUILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR
THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  54.2W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  45SE  25SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N  54.2W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  53.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.5N  59.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.3N  61.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 21.0N  67.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N  70.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 30.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N  54.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA