000
WTNT22 KNHC 281435
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  51.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  45SE  10SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  45SE  20SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  51.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  51.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.1N  54.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  10SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.8N  60.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.7N  62.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 30.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  51.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA