000
WTNT22 KNHC 280845
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0900 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS
...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND
ST. EUSTATIUS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  50.1W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  45SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  50.1W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  49.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.0N  52.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  20SE   0SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  55SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 16.5N  55.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 17.2N  58.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.2N  60.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.8N  64.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 29.5N  69.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  50.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN