000
WTNT22 KNHC 280249
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
0300 UTC SAT AUG 28 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FRENCH SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
 
THIS TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.
 
RESIDENTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THESE ISLANDS TOMORROW.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  47.9W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  45SE  15SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  47.9W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  47.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.2N  50.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.6N  54.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.3N  56.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N  59.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...120NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.5N  63.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 24.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  47.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE