000
WTNT22 KNHC 120232
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  33.6W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  60 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  33.6W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  33.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.1N  33.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.4N  33.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.2N  34.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  15SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.0N  35.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.0N  40.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N  46.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 25.0N  51.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  33.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN