000
WTNT22 KNHC 281444
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008
1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2008
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  76.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  76.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  75.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N  77.1W...NEAR S COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N  79.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.1N  80.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N  82.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N  89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  76.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB