000
WTNT22 KNHC 281441
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007
1500 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  49.2W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  49.2W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  49.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 15.5N  50.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 16.6N  52.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 17.6N  53.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N  54.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.0N  56.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N  49.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA