000
WTNT22 KNHC 272033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  48.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 140SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..170NE  80SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  48.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  47.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N  49.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.8N  51.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.8N  52.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.7N  54.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N  55.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 22.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N  58.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  48.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA