000
WTNT21 KNHC 212050
TCMAT1
 
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162023
2100 UTC THU SEP 21 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  75.9W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N  75.9W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N  75.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 30.8N  75.8W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...210NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 32.6N  76.0W...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...300NE  90SE   0SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 33.8N  76.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...380NE  90SE 130SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.6N  77.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...410NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.3N  76.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...210NE 150SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.7N  76.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 40.0N  74.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N  75.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 22/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH