000
WTNT21 KNHC 191455
TCMAT1
 
TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  56.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  56.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  55.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.3N  58.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.2N  60.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.2N  63.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.3N  64.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...110NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.5N  66.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.8N  67.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 25.5N  67.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 27.2N  66.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  56.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO