870 
WTNT21 KNHC 110853
TCMAT1

HURRICANE FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062018
0900 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH...SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM EDISTO BEACH... SOUTH CAROLINA... NORTHWARD TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER... INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  64.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N  64.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N  63.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N  66.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N  69.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N  72.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.2N  74.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.3N  77.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N  78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N  79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N  64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN