000
WTNT21 KNHC 052044
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA...
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  84.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  84.3W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  84.0W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N  84.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N  86.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.3N  87.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.6N  89.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 38.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.5N  72.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  84.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN