000
WTNT21 KNHC 042049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
2100 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN
12-24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.  A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS EVENING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  82.5W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  82.5W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  82.3W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.2N  83.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.6N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.7N  84.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N  85.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N  88.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 30.5N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 35.5N  82.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  82.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE