000
WTNT21 KNHC 041438
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NORTHWARD TO THE
HONDURAS BORDER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE
DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  81.9W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  81.9W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  81.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N  81.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE