000 WTNT21 KNHC 110242 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC MON SEP 11 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH...AS WELL AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET * NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * FLORIDA KEYS * TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO FERNANDINA BEACH * NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO INDIAN PASS * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA BEACH * FLORIDA KEYS * FLORIDA BAY * WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE * NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT.......360NE 200SE 150SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..450NE 180SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 81.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.4N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 31.9N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 33.9N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 35.0N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.5N 87.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 81.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG