000
WTNT21 KNHC 311434
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062017
1500 UTC MON JUL 31 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  82.8W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  50SE  40SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N  82.8W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N  83.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 27.7N  81.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.9N  79.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.5N  77.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.2N  75.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 35.3N  70.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 37.7N  63.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N  82.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART