000 WTNT21 KNHC 020251 TCMAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0300 UTC SUN OCT 02 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 62.2W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 105SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 62.2W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.4N 61.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 42.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.5N 53.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 45SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 49.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 240SE 240SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 53.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 400SE 400SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 62.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN