000
WTNT21 KNHC 300840
TCMAT1
 
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  62.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N  62.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N  62.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N  63.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N  63.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.1N  62.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.6N  61.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.3N  57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE  90SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 51.5N  38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N  62.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART