000
WTNT21 KNHC 071452
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO CABO
CATOCHE.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.  THE
GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  84.1W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  30SE  15SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  15SW  15NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  84.1W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N  84.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE  45SE  15SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.3N  85.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  20SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  30SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.2N  86.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  20SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE  60SE  30SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.6N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...175NE  90SE  45SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.5N  88.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...175NE  90SE  45SW 125NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N  86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  84.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE