000
WTNT21 KNHC 070834
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2009
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN
NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 4 AM EST...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WESTERN
CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  84.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  84.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  84.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N  84.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  15SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N  87.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 26.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N  86.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N  85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  84.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN