000
WTNT21 KNHC 171430
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
1500 UTC SUN AUG 17 2008
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH ON THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN NOW EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND
ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO ANNA
MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF
LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO
GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS DISCONTINUED
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY.
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  78.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 120SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N  78.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N  78.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.3N  80.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.9N  81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N  82.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.5N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  45SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 36.0N  81.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N  78.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN