000
WTNT21 KNHC 162033
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 16 2008
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...CINEFUEGOS...AND
MATANZAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA AND
SANCTI SPIRITUS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANMO.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CANCELED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  ALSO AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI IS CANCELED NORTH OF PORT-AU-PRINCE.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF
HAITI.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  75.2W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N  75.2W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  74.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.9N  77.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N  79.1W...NEAR COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 22.2N  80.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.6N  81.6W...INLAND OVER CUBA
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 30.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N  75.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN