000
WTPZ45 KNHC 212042
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022
 
A new tropical depression has formed in the east Pacific basin.  
The satellite presentation of now Tropical Depression Fifteen-E 
has improved over the past 24 hours.  Visible imagery shows decent 
upper-level outflow in the western semicircle and cold cloud tops as 
low as -70 degrees C.  Due to the increase in convective 
organization, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, slightly 
higher than the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The depression is moving just north of west at 275/9 kt. It is 
moving along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered 
over Texas.  This ridge is expected to steer the system to the 
west-northwest for the next couple of days at a gradually slower 
forward speed.  The model guidance is relatively tightly 
clustered and the NHC track forecast is close to the multi-model 
consensus aids.  

The environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally 
conducive for slight development over the next couple days. 
Oceanic surface temperatures, atmospheric moisture and vertical 
wind shear are likely to allow the depression to reach and maintain 
tropical cyclone strength for the next couple of days.  Beyond that 
time frame, the cyclone is forecast to traverse cooler waters and 
enter a drier, more stable environment.  The system is expected to 
become a remnant low by 72 hours and open into a trough shortly 
thereafter.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 17.1N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.5N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 17.8N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 18.2N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  24/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci/Jelsema