210 
WTPZ45 KNHC 161437
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ivette Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022
 
Some limited thunderstorm activity has recently developed around 
the periphery of Ivette's circulation, but so far it has lacked 
organization as strong easterly shear continues to affect the 
cyclone.  If the convection does not gain organization soon, Ivette 
will likely become a remnant low as early as this afternoon.  The 
initial intensity has been held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which 
is based on a recent Dvorak current intensity number of T2.0 from 
TAFB. 

Strong easterly shear of about 25 kt and a relatively dry atmosphere 
are expected to lead to weakening over the next couple of days.  
Assuming the current thunderstorm activity does not become 
organized, Ivette should become post-tropical later today.  The 
remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough in 3 to 4 days. 

Ivette remains within an area of weak steering flow and it has 
only drifted west-southwestward over the past several hours.  The 
global model guidance suggests that the cyclone should begin to 
move westward or west-northwestward within the next day or so as 
the low-level flow becomes better defined to the north of the 
system. The new NHC track forecast is along the southern side of 
the guidance envelope, and is in best agreement with the HFIP 
corrected consensus aid. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 17.1N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1200Z 17.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0000Z 18.0N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1200Z 18.2N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1200Z 17.8N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown